Trump & Crypto: A Moonshot or Just Wishful Thinking?
The Numbers Behind the Narrative
The narrative is simple: Trump gets re-elected, crypto goes to the moon. But let’s dissect the numbers. Roughly 28% of American adults now own cryptocurrency as of 2025. That’s a significant jump from 15% in 2021, but it's not exactly a revolution. Is Trump solely responsible? Unlikely. The trend was already in motion. Bitcoin’s upward trajectory started back in 2023.
The survey data (from December 2024, with a sample size of 1,969 adults) suggests that 60% of those familiar with crypto think its value will increase under Trump. Okay, sounds bullish. But "familiar with crypto" is a crucial qualifier. It's an echo chamber effect. Those already invested are naturally more optimistic. What about the rest?
And here's the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling: only about 30% of adults support a national Bitcoin reserve. Trump vowed to create one. There's a clear disconnect between his stated policy and public support, even among crypto enthusiasts. It's like saying you love pizza but hate cheese.
Crypto's Security Problem: A Red Flag Ignored?
The Security Question Mark
Now, let's talk security. Nearly 60% of those *familiar* with crypto *aren't* confident in its security. And almost one in five crypto owners have struggled to access or withdraw their funds. That's a major red flag. It doesn’t matter if Bitcoin hits $200,000 if people can’t actually use it. This is a crucial detail often glossed over in the hype. These statistics are detailed in the
2025 Cryptocurrency Adoption and Consumer Sentiment Report - Security.org.
Moreover, 38% of non-owners say they’ll *never* buy crypto due to volatility, cyberattacks, and lack of oversight. These aren’t just vague fears; they're concrete barriers to wider adoption. The pro-Trump crypto narrative conveniently ignores this significant chunk of the population.
It’s also worth noting that while Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin remain the most desired and held currencies, Ethereum has lost some ground to competitors like Solana. This suggests a diversification of interest, a search for alternatives, possibly driven by concerns about scalability or transaction fees. This also suggests the market isn't a monolith blindly following the "big three."
The SEC’s approval of Bitcoin and Ether ETFs (in January and July 2024, respectively) is a big deal, no question. It legitimizes crypto in the eyes of traditional investors. But does it guarantee a price surge? Absolutely not. It simply provides easier access. Demand still needs to be there.
One last point: the crypto market cap hit a record $3.33 trillion by the end of October 2024, doubling from the start of the year. But market cap isn't the same as actual value. It’s a calculated number based on the price of a single coin multiplied by the total number of coins in circulation. If a small number of people are trading large volumes, it can artificially inflate the perceived value.
A False Dawn?
The numbers paint a more nuanced picture than the "Trump pump" narrative suggests. Yes, there's increased adoption and optimism among crypto owners. But significant security concerns and a lack of broader public support remain. The market is still volatile, and the long-term impact of Trump's policies is far from certain. The data suggests a rally built on hope, not necessarily on solid foundations.
